Is the Risk of HIV Transmission Higher if Your Partner is Black or Hispanic?

Why ask such a loaded question?

Because we've been inundated with some version of the question ever since our science-based piece on the odds of getting HIV. Spoiler alert: It's 1.43% per act.

The numbers are scarier than they look when you consider  the cumulative risks so spend some time on our article, The Odds of Getting HIV After a One Night Stand.

Back to our question: Does the risk of HIV infection rise with a Black or Hispanic partner? The question makes sense  given the following stats:

• White Gay Community: Approximately 5% of white gay and bisexual men are living with HIV.

• Black Gay Community: Around 25% of new HIV infections were among Black gay and bisexual men in 2021.

• Latino Gay Community: About 22% of new HIV infections were among Latino gay and bisexual men in 20211

• Asian Gay Community: There is no specific data on the percentage of HIV prevalence among the Asian gay community.

So what's the answer to this rude and insensitive question?

We don't actually know because the data isn't broken out by race or ethnicity.

We do know, of course, that some groups face higher rates of HIV, and that's important to understand - not to stigmatize people, but to address the real inequities behind those statistics.

First, some background. The CDC estimates that for one act of condomless receptive anal sex with an HIV-positive partner, the odds of the negative partner acquiring the virus are around 1.38%. (we use a 1.43% stat because other studies show the per act figure is higher than the CDC's.).

At the same time, HIV does impact some communities more than others. So what's behind those big differences? It's not ethnicity itself - it's discrimination, lack of access to healthcare, stigma, and a host of socioeconomic factors that disproportionately affect minority communities.

Fortunately, we are in the midst of a groundbreaking "Undetectable = Untransmittable" revolution transforming the HIV landscape. Find out how it will affect your sexual health.

The Odds of Getting HIV After a One Night Stand

HIV Doesn't Discriminate, But Society Does

For example, poverty is linked to higher HIV rates, since it can limit access to prevention resources. Racism and homophobia also fuel stigma that deters testing and treatment. Mass incarceration hits the Black community especially hard, and prisons have higher HIV rates. Intravenous drug use is a major transmission route, yet safe injection sites are scarce in low-income neighborhoods. The list goes on.

These inequities stack the deck against already marginalized groups, driving higher rates of HIV transmission. So if we calculated per-act transmission stats by race or ethnicity, we'd likely see increased odds for minority groups. But that wouldn't tell the whole story. 

Creating those estimates accurately would require extensive data collection on risk factors within each population. Viral load suppression would need to be accounted for, since it dramatically cuts transmission odds. Condom usage, sexual networks, HIV testing rates, and other behavioral variables would also have to be modeled.

Even with rigorous methodology, such an analysis could reinforce dangerous stereotypes. It might get condensed down to: "Sex with [minority group] means higher HIV risk." And that could fuel stigma, profiling, and blame rather than catalyzing progress.

Look at the Person, Not the Stereotype

So public health organizations aim to steer the focus toward addressing those systemic inequities that drive disproportionate HIV burdens in the first place. They promote perspectives and policies that don't stigmatize groups, but rather empower individuals - no matter their background - to access prevention tools like PrEP, condoms, and testing.

For individuals assessing their HIV risk, the most useful question remains: What's my partner's status? If they are HIV-negative or have an undetectable viral load on treatment, risk is dramatically lowered, regardless of ethnicity. Of course, discussing HIV can be difficult, especially amid stigma. But open communication and safer sex practices are the surest ways to reduce transmission odds. 

Occasional testing, PrEP, or using condoms remain wise for anyone with multiple partners, given that around 1 in 7 people with HIV don't know their status. But avoiding broad generalizations or assumptions about groups is important. Otherwise, we run the risk of alienating the very communities most impacted by HIV, which could worsen the epidemic.

HIV transmission is about risky behaviors, not risky groups. So rather than creating potentially stigmatizing stats, public health orgs must continue addressing the systemic gaps allowing HIV to thrive in marginalized communities. That's how we'll eventually beat HIV - by lifting up the most affected, not labeling them.